KEY MOMENTS · BY WIN-PROBABILITY SWING
01
S.Rattler -> F.Moreau, 0-yd TD
(Shotgun) S.Rattler pass short right intended for F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by A.Nelson at NO 3. A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined. Drive-ending interception. Score after play: TB 7, NO 0.
EPA -7.44. Win probability swing 21%.
02
A.Nelson forced fumble, recovered by L.David
(Shotgun) S.Rattler scrambles left guard to TB 34 for 7 yards (A.Nelson; S.Dennis). FUMBLES (A.Nelson), touched at TB 33, RECOVERED by L.David at TB 32. Turnover flips the possession. Score after play: TB 0, NO 0.
EPA -5.38. Win probability swing 11%.
03
J.Dean forced fumble, recovered by A.Winfield
(Shotgun) S.Rattler pass short left to R.Shaheed to NO 44 for 10 yards (J.Dean). FUMBLES (J.Dean), RECOVERED by A.Winfield at NO 47. Turnover flips the possession. Score after play: TB 7, NO 0.
EPA -4.17. Win probability swing 10%.
04
C.Young strip-sack, recovered by C.Young
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 40 for -11 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], touched at TB 42, RECOVERED by C.Young at TB 40. C.Young to TB 45 for -5 yards (G.Barton). Turnover flips the possession. Score after play: TB 7, NO 0.
EPA -4.23. Win probability swing 8%.
05
S.Tucker, 1-yd TD
S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Touchdown swings the leverage immediately. Score after play: TB 14, NO 3.
EPA +2.43. Win probability swing 3%.