KEY MOMENTS · BY WIN-PROBABILITY SWING
01
A.Gilman forced fumble, recovered by A.Gilman
(Shotgun) T.Tagovailoa pass short right to T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (A.Gilman; T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (A.Gilman), RECOVERED by A.Gilman at MIA 18. A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (T.Washington; G.Dulcich). Turnover flips the possession. Score after play: BAL 0, MIA 3.
EPA -4.94. Win probability swing 16%.
02
L.Jackson -> M.Andrews, 2-yd TD
L.Jackson pass short right to M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Touchdown swings the leverage immediately. Score after play: BAL 7, MIA 3.
EPA +3.81. Win probability swing 9%.
03
L.Jackson -> M.Andrews, 20-yd TD
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short left to M.Andrews for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Touchdown swings the leverage immediately. Score after play: BAL 14, MIA 3.
EPA +2.84. Win probability swing 5%.
04
L.Jackson -> R.Bateman, 9-yd TD
L.Jackson pass short middle to R.Bateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [Jo.Phillips]. Penalty on J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. Touchdown swings the leverage immediately. Score after play: BAL 28, MIA 6.
EPA +1.74. Win probability swing 2%.
05
L.Jackson -> C.Kolar, 3-yd TD
L.Jackson pass short left to C.Kolar for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Touchdown swings the leverage immediately. Score after play: BAL 21, MIA 6.
EPA +0.91. Win probability swing 1%.